Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,228,603$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(7.83 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,282,776.7}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,282,776.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $73,431$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(3.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{76,399.5}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(76,399.5\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $965,262$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $64,694$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(3.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{73,175.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 45.1)}}\) (asimptote \(73,175.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,366$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(114 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,200.3}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 41.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,200.3\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $32,144$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,731$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(522 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,644.5}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 39.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,644.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $218$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(12.9 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{234.5}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(234.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,654$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,807$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(556 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,224.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 39.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10,224.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $362$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(41.2 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{358.2}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 27.7)}}\) (asimptote \(358.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,485$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $27,634$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(713 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53,983.9}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 48.6)}}\) (asimptote \(53,983.9\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,704$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(101 \times 10^{0.036t}\) (doubling rate \(8.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,817.9}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,817.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,149$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,461$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(70.6 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.8\) days)
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $99$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(9.64 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{159.1}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(159.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,230$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,703$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(183 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,813.8}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 28.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,813.8\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $69$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(7.06 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{80.8}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 27.3)}}\) (asimptote \(80.8\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $633$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $478$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(13.3 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{628.5}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 44.4)}}\) (asimptote \(628.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $412$ on 2020-05-06
